DRV forecast for the overall travel market: positive outlook for winter and summer - travel spending expected to increase by six percent to 85 billion euros.

The German Travel Association (DRV) is forecasting stable year-on-year sales growth of six percent for the market for vacation and leisure travel of at least one overnight stay for the full tourism year 2024/25 (November 1, 2024 to October 31, 2025). This means that the forecast expenditure for travel services that are booked before the start of the vacation is expected to reach 85 billion euros in the current year. This includes package tours from tour operators as well as individual and self-organized vacations. Of this total travel market, around half of the turnover is attributable to package tours and modular tours offered by tour operators.

The number of travelers is expected to remain at the previous year's level of 139 million. These estimates are based on the latest market forecast developed by the DRV in collaboration with industry experts and published twice a year - at the beginning of the year and before the summer.

Despite all the crises and economic challenges, Germans are still keen to travel. Vacations are being booked even earlier than in previous years,” says DRV President Norbert Fiebig, pleased with the unabated desire to go on vacation. However, it is also a fact that concerns about the threat of unemployment are on the rise again. Cost increases are depressing the general consumer mood and putting a strain on disposable income in private household budgets. “Nevertheless, we can see: The figures in the travel industry are pointing upwards. However, if the negative economic trends become entrenched, this will also have an impact on travel behavior,” says DRV President Fiebig.

Winter 2024/25: Growth especially for sun destinations

For the current winter season 2024/25 (November 1 to April 31), the DRV expects travel spending to increase by six percent to 27 billion euros (previous year: 24 billion euros). The number of travelers will fall slightly by one percent to around 45 million compared to 2024.

The DRV expects demand to continue to rise, particularly for medium-haul destinations around the Mediterranean. Long-haul travel and cruises will remain at a stable, high level of demand. Ground-based travel by car, train or bus is expected to show a slight decline this winter, although this will only slightly dampen overall growth. “It is becoming apparent that air travel in particular towards the Canary Islands, Turkey

Summer 2025: high demand expected for Mediterranean, long-haul trips and cruises

The forecast for summer 2025 is also optimistic: the majority of the population does not seem to want to give up traveling. This is indicated by the very good advance bookings for both tour operator trips and individual travel for the summer season. DRV President Fiebig: “More people have already booked a package tour or modular tour with a tour operator than at the same time last year. This means that the pronounced trend towards early booking is continuing, especially for summer vacations. In short: early booking is the new last minute.” The travel industry expects sales growth of five percent to 58 billion euros for the overall tour operator and individual travel market in the summer. Medium-haul destinations, cruises and long-haul travel in particular are contributing to this positive development. In the case of package tours, vacation destinations around the Mediterranean, primarily Turkey, Spain and Greece, as well as ocean cruises are traditionally in demand. A total of around 94 million travelers are forecast - the same number as in summer 2024.