Middle East War leads to 3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April
- 6/1/2026
- 4 H
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for April 2026 global passenger demand.
Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers
(RPK), was down -3.4% compared to April 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand
increased by 1.2%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK),
decreased -2.9% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.1% (-0.4 ppt compared to
April 2025).
International demand fell -5.3% compared to April
2025. Excluding Middle East, demand grew by 1.9%. Capacity was down -5.1%
year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9% (-0.2 ppt compared to April 2025).
Domestic demand was flat compared to April 2025.
Capacity increased 0.8% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.9% (-0.7 ppt
compared to April 2025).
Regional Breakdown - International
Passenger Markets
International RPK fell -5.3%, with capacity falling
-5.1%. However, this decline was caused by continuing heavy falls in demand for
Middle East carriers. Excluding the Middle East, RPK increased by 1.9%. North
America was flat and all other regions reported growth.
Asia-Pacific airlines
achieved a 3.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.7%
year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.5% (+1.9 ppt compared to April 2025),
a record high for April. There was a notable slowdown in traffic on the
Japan-China corridor, due to ongoing political tensions.
European carriers
saw a 0.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.3%
year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.9% (+0.6 ppt compared to April 2025).
Direct traffic between Europe and Asia increased 15.3% as it replaced traffic
transiting through the Middle East.
North American
carriers saw a 0.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity decreased -1.1%
year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9% (+0.9 ppt compared to April 2025).
Middle Eastern carriers
saw a -48.1% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell -38.4%
year-on-year, and the load factor was 70.1% (-13.1 ppt compared to April 2025).
Traffic was impacted by the ongoing Iran war, though the decline slowed a
little compared to March, as an uneasy ceasefire came into effect.
Latin American airlines
achieved an 8.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 7.2%
year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (+1.4 ppt compared to April 2025).
African airlines
saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 1.2% year-on-year.
The load factor was 77.9% (+0.7 ppt compared to April 2025).
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic RPK was flat in April compared to April 2025.
Growth in Brazil, China, and Japan was balanced out by falls in Australia,
India, and the United States. Load factors fell in most of the major markets
barring China and Japan, though it should be noted that capacity in the
Japanese market has declined for eight months in a row.
“The 46.6% fall in demand for carriers in the Middle
East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down
-3.4%. The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet
fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule
data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that
airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand.” said Willie
Walsh, IATA’s Director General.







