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TUI maintains outlook as holiday demand stays strong despite Iran War

TUI posted a strong underlying EBIT of -188 million euros in the second quarter, traditionally a weaker period for the tourism industry (+19 million euros year-over-year), despite one-time charges resulting from the Iran conflict (-40 million euros); revenue rose by 1.3 percent

The international tourism group TUI is presenting its half-year results. Despite a challenging market environment, economic challenges, and the armed conflicts in the Middle East, the first half of the year was very successful for TUI. The recently revised outlook for the full year was confirmed today in Hanover.

Performance in the first half of the year and the second quarter of 2026 in the Holiday Experiences (Hotels & Resorts, Cruises, TUI Musement) and Markets + Airline (Tour Operator, Airline) business areas

Looking at the first half of fiscal year 2026, TUI improved underlying EBIT by 45 million euros to -111 million euros (previous year: -155.9 million euros) despite the additional burdens.

This was driven by a strong second quarter following a strong first quarter. Despite the impact of the war in Iran (40 million euro) and Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica (5 million euro) - totaling 45 million euro in this quarter alone - underlying EBIT at the Group level improved by 8.9 percent to -188 million euro in the period from January to March 2026 (previous year: -206.8 million euro). This improvement was driven by the successful transformation in the Markets + Airline business area as well as strong demand for TUI’s cruise offerings.

The Holiday Experiences business area (Hotels & Resorts, Cruises, and TUI Musement) generated an underlying EBIT of 176.0 million euros in the second quarter (previous year: 172.3 million euros). This corresponds to a result nearly on par with the prior year - and that in a geopolitically challenging environment. Excluding the aforementioned headwinds in the Middle East, underlying EBIT would have been 20 million euros higher. A key driver of the positive performance in the Holiday Experiences business area is strong demand in travel distribution for differentiated offerings from TUI Cruises.

The Hotels & Resorts segment recorded stable earnings in the second quarter, on par with the strong prior-year quarter. The impacts of the hurricane in Jamaica and weaker demand for Mexico were offset. Underlying EBIT rose slightly by 0.3 percent to 103.0 million euros. Adjusted for the impact of the hurricane, average daily rates improved by 2 percent and overall occupancy increased by 1 percentage point to79 percent.

The Cruises area continued its strong operating performance in the second quarter of 2026 despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Demand in the two markets relevant to the segment - the United Kingdom and Germany - remains robust. Underlying EBIT stood at 80.3 million euros, including charges of 20 million euros related to the war in Iran. In the first half of 2026 as a whole, the Cruise segment improved its underlying EBIT by 25.9 percent to 163.5 million euros, which underscores the strong demand for cruises as well as the robust operational performance. Adjusted for the Iran effect, occupancy would have risen by 1 percentage point to 98 percent. Including the Iran effect, occupancy remained at a high level of 93 percent (previous year: 97 percent). The average daily rate across all cruise brands improved by 2 percent to 223 euros despite the Iran war, and available passenger days also developed positively (+10 percent) to 2.9 million.

TUI Musement impressively matched its results from the previous year. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, 1.6 million experiences were sold, representing a 6 percent increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The number of transfers also increased slightly by 1 percent to 4 million. The segment’s underlying EBIT improved by a strong 39.7 percent to -7.3 million euros in the traditionally weaker second quarter.

In the Markets + Airline business area (tour operators, sales, and TUI Airline), the strategic transformation is yielding positive results and led to a 7.0 percent increase in underlying EBIT in the second quarter to -339.5 million euros. The strong result in this traditionally negative quarter is attributable to operational efficiency improvements and a reduced cost base. The Markets + Airline area was able to offset the 20 million euro burden resulting from the war in Iran. In a highly competitive environment, the business area benefited from sustained demand for differentiated products and dynamically packaged holidays. Here, a 12 percent increase to 0.5 million was recorded compared to the same period last year. The share of sales via the TUI app also rose sharply by 20 percent compared to the same quarter last year. As a result, app sales already accounted for 11.4 percent of total revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. In the Central Region, which includes tour operators in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Poland, underlying EBIT in the second quarter was -104.6 million euros (previous year: -98.2 million euros). In the Northern Region, comprising the UK, Ireland, and the Nordic countries, underlying EBIT in the second quarter stood at

-157.5 million euros (previous year: -182.1 million euros). Underlying EBIT for the Western Region, comprising the Netherlands, Belgium, and France, stood at -77.3 million euros in the second quarter (previous year: -84.6 million euros).

Outlook for the second half of the year: Strong demand in the Holiday Experiences business area, last-minute booking behavior in the Markets + Airline business area

Bookings to date for the second half of the year in the Holiday Experiences business area - which includes the company’s own hotel and cruise brands as well as the growing Experiences and Activities business - show positive demand despite geopolitical challenges, supported by higher average prices in the second half of the year.

In the Hotels & Resorts segment, currently booked occupancy is still 6 percentage points lower than in the prior-year period, which is also attributable to the shift in demand away from destinations in the eastern Mediterranean toward destinations in the western Mediterranean. The outlook for rates in the second half of the year is positive at +4 percent. In the Cruises segment, the temporary unavailability of Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 at the start of the third quarter - from April through mid-May - had a noticeable impact. The number of available passenger days for cruises is up 6 percent compared to the same period last year, supported by the entry into service of the Mein Schiff Flow starting in mid-June 2025. Adjusted for the canceled voyages of the Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5, occupancy increases by 1 percentage point. The daily rate is up 3 percent compared to the second half of fiscal year 2025.

TUI Musement continues to benefit from strong demand for its own differentiated products in the second half of fiscal year 2026 and expects a mid-single-digit percentage increase in bookings. The number of transfers in the second half is in line with our assumptions for Markets + Airline.

In the Markets + Airline business area, a shift in consumer booking behavior is currently evident for summer 2026 due to the impact of the Iran war. Our figures and the overall market show a trend toward strong last-minute booking behavior, particularly to Western Mediterranean countries. As in the previous year, just under half of consumers planning a vacation have not yet booked for this season. In addition, demand is shifting from destinations in the eastern Mediterranean to those in the western Mediterranean. Spain, including the Balearic and Canary Islands, as well as Greece, will be the most popular destinations this summer.

Currently, more than half of the available capacity for the summer has been sold. Despite the challenges posed by the war in Iran, the focus remains on the growth of differentiated products and dynamically packaged holidays. Utilising our own asset capacity is the priority. This approach is supported by our cost-reduction and efficiency-improvement programmes. At the same time, higher average prices are expected to help partially offset the increased cost level.

Outlook for the Full Year 2026

TUI remains committed to its successful strategy. The outlook adjusted in April is based on the current booking environment for the summer season, the expectation that there will be no material escalation of geopolitical tensions, and that fuel supplies can be maintained. The Group’s strong financial position and robust balance sheet ensure it is well-positioned to respond to the current market environment and continue its strategic transformation. On this basis, TUI today confirmed its revised outlook from April 22 for the 2026 fiscal year at constant currency:

TUI is temporarily suspending its revenue forecast (previous forecast: +2–4 percent; FY 2025: 24.2 billion euros).

The Group expects underlying EBIT for the 2026 fiscal year to be in the range of 1.1 to 1.4 billion euros, with the ambition of reaching a level close to that of the previous year (previous forecast: +7–10 percent; FY 2025: 1.4 billion euros).