Global airlines have begun to hike fares and cut capacity to cope with the sudden surge in the oil price, but the industry's ability to remain profitable may depend on whether consumers pull back on ​flying as gasoline costs threaten household budgets.

Reuters – Before the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began last month, the airline industry had forecast record profits of $41 billion in 2026, but a ‌doubling in jet fuel prices has placed that at risk and forced carriers to rethink their networks and strategies.

Record post-pandemic demand for travel and persistent supply-chain challenges had constrained capacity growth and given airlines significant pricing power as they filled more seats on each plane.

But the scale of the ​increases needed to make up for the jet fuel price surge is huge at a time when consumers are under pressure from higher gasoline prices that could curb discretionary spending.